HOW NOT TO WOR= RY ABOUT EXPLODING STARS & MASS EXTINCTIONS

From http://www.ho= tbitscafe.com/go/maitreya/hp-type.html

Type I, II, III Civilizatio= ns
An excerpt from the book of Michio Kaku: Visions : How Science Will=
Revolutionize the 21st Century (1998)

Futurology, or the predi= ction of the future from reasonable scientific
judgments, is a risky s= cience. Some would not even call it a science at all,
but something th= at more resembles hocus pocus or witchcraft. Futurology has
deservedly= earned this unsavory reputation because every scientific" poll
conduc= ted by futurologists about the next decade has proved to be wildly offthe mark. What makes futurology such a primitive science is that our bra= ins
think linearly, while knowledge progresses exponentially. For exam= ple, polls
of futurologists have shown that they take known technology= and simply
double or triple it to predict the future. Polls taken in = the 1920s showed
that futurologists predicted that we would have, with= in a few decades, huge
fleets of blimps taking passengers across the A= tlantic.

But science also develops in unexpected ways. In the shor= t run, when
extrapolating within a few years, it is a safe bet that sc= ience will
progress through steady, quantitative improvements on exist= ing technology.
However, when extrapolating over a few decades, we fin= d that qualitative
breakthroughs in new areas become the dominant fact= or, where new industries
open up in unexpected places.

Perhaps = the most famous example of futurology gone wrong is the predictions
ma= de by John von Neumann, the father of the modern electronic computer and<= BR>one of the great mathematicians of the century. After the war, he made= two
predictions: first, that in the future computers would become so = monstrous
and costly that only large governments would be able to affo= rd them, and
second, that computers would be able to predict the weath= er accurately.

In reality, the growth of computers went in precise= ly the opposite
direction: We are flooded with inexpensive, miniature = computers that can fit
in the palm of our hands. Computer chips have b= ecome so cheap and plentiful
that they are an integral part of some mo= dern appliances. Already, we have
the "smart" typewriter (the word pro= cessor), and eventually we will have the
"smart" vacuum cleaner, the "= smart" kitchen, the "smart" television, and the
like. Also, computers,= no matter how powerful, have failed to predict the
weather. Although = the classical motion of individual molecules can, in
principle, be pre= dicted, the weather is so complex that even someone
sneezing can creat= e distortions that will ripple and be magnified across
thousands of mi= les, eventually, perhaps, unleashing a hurricane.

With all these i= mportant caveats, let us determine when a civilization
(either our own= or one in outer space) may attain the ability to master the
tenth dim= ension. Astronomer Nikolai Kardashev of the former Soviet Union
once c= ategorized future civilizations in the following way. A Type I
civiliz= ation is one that controls the energy resources of an entire planet.
T= his civilization can control the weather, prevent earthquakes, mine deep = in
the earth's crust, and harvest the oceans. This civilization has al= ready
completed the exploration of its solar system. A Type 11 civiliz= ation is one
that controls the power of the sun itself. This does not = mean passively
harnessing solar energy; this civilization mines the su= n. The energy needs
of this civilization are so large directly consume= s the power of the sun to
drive its machines. The civilization will be= gin the colonization of local
star systems.

A Type III civiliza= tion is one that controls the power of an entire galaxy.
For a power s= ource, it harnesses the power of billions of star systems. It
has prob= ably mastered Einstein's equations and can manipulate space-time at
wi= ll. The basis of this classification is rather simple: Each level is
c= atergorized on the basis of the power source that energizes the
civili= zation. Type I civilizations use the power of an entire planet. Type
I= I civilizations use the power of an entire star. Type III civilizations u= se
the power of an entire galaxy. This classification ignores any pred= ictions
concerning the detailed nature of future civilizations (which = are bound to
be wrong) and instead focuses on aspects that can be reas= onably understood
by the laws of physics, such as energy supply.
Our civilization, by contrast, can be categorized as a Type 0 civilizat= ion,
one that is just beginning to tap planetary resources, but does n= ot have the
technology and resources to control them. A Type 0 civiliz= ation like ours
derives its energy from fossil fuels like oil and coal= and, in much of the
Third World, from raw human labor. Our largest co= mputers cannot even predict
the weather, let alone control it. Viewed = from this larger perspective, we
as a civilization are like a newborn = infant.

Although one might guess that the slow march from a Type 0= civilization to a
Type III civilization might take millions of years,= the extraordinary fact
about this classification scheme is that this = climb is an exponential one
and hence proceeds much faster than anythi= ng we can readily conceive.

With all these qualifications, we can = still make educated guesses about when
our civilization will reach the= se milestones. Given the rate at which our
civilization is growing, we= might expect to reach Type I status within a few
centuries.

Fo= r example, the largest energy source available to our Type 0 civilization=
is the hydrogen bomb. Our technology is so primitive that we can unle= ash the
power of hydrogen fusion only by detonating a bomb, rather tha= n controlling
it in a power generator. However, a simple hurricane gen= erates the power of
hundreds of hydrogen bombs. Thus weather control, = which is one feature of
Type I civilizations, is at least a century aw= ay from today's technology.

Similarly, a Type I civilization has a= lready colonized most of its solar
system. By contrast, milestones in = today's development of space travel are
painfully measured on the scal= e of decades, and therefore qualitative leaps
such as space colonizati= on must be measured in centuries. For example, the
earliest date for N= ASA's manned landing on the planet Mars is 2020.
Therefore, the coloni= zation of Mars may take place 40 to 50 years after
that, and the colon= ization of the solar system within a century.

By contrast, the tra= nsition from a Type I to a Type II civilization may take
only 1,000 ye= ars. Given the exponential growth of civilization, we may
expect that = within 1,000 years the energy needs of a civilization will
become so l= arge that it must begin to mine the sun to energize its machines.

=
A typical example of a Type II civilization is the Federation of Plan= ets in
the "Star Trek" series. This civilization has just begun to mas= ter the
gravitational force-that is, the art of warping space-time via= holes-and
hence, for the first time, has the capability of reaching n= earby stars. It
has evaded the limit placed by the speed of light by m= astering Einstein's
theory of general relativity. Small colonies have = been established on some
of these systems, which the starship Enterpri= se is sworn to protect. The
civilization's starships are powered by th= e collision of matter and
antimatter. The ability to create large conc= entrations of antimatter
suitable for space travel places that civiliz= ation many centuries to a
millennium away from ours.

Advancing = to a Type III civilization may take several thousand years ore.
This i= s, in fact, the time scale predicted by Isaac Asimov in his c
Foundati= on Series, which describes the rise, fall, and re-emergence of a
galac= tic civilization. The time scale involved in each of these transitionsinvolves thousands of years. This civilization has harnessed the energy<= BR>source contained within the galaxy itself. To it, warp drive, ad of be= ing an
exotic form of travel to the nearby stars, is the standard mean= s of trade
and commerce between sectors of the galaxy. Thus although i= t took 2 million
years for our species to leave the safety of the fore= sts and build a modem
civilization, it may take only thousands of to l= eave the safety of our solar
system and build a galactic civilization.=

One option open to a Type III civilization is harnessing the powe= r of
supernovae or black holes. Its starships may even be able to prob= e the
galactic nucleus, which is perhaps the most mysterious of all en= ergy
sources. Astrophysicists have theorized that because of the enorm= ous size of
the galactic nucleus, the center of our galaxy may contain= millions of black
holes. If true, this would provide virtually unlimi= ted amounts of energy.

At this point, manipulating energies a mill= ion billion times larger than
present-day energies should be possible.= Thus for a Type III civilization,
with the energy output of uncountab= le star systems and perhaps the galactic
nucleus at its disposal, the = mastery of the tenth dimension' becomes a real
possibility.

=3D= =3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D=3D
(7) AND FINALLY: FORGET NEO SEARCHES AS= "INVISIBLE ASTEROIDS MAY POSE THREAT
TO EARTH"

From Space Dail= y, 6 May 2002
http://www.spacedaily.com/news/mirror-matter-02a.html
New Theory Asserts The Existence Of Mirror Matter

Melbourne -= May 06, 2002

Invisible asteroids and other cosmic bodies made of = a new form of matter may
pose a threat to Earth, asserts Australian Ph= ysicist Dr. Robert Foot.

In a revolutionary new theory, Dr. Robert= Foot of the University of
Melbourne argues that meteorites composed o= f `mirror matter' -- a candidate
for the invisible dark matter that as= tronomers say is necessary to explain
their observations -- could impa= ct with the Earth without leaving any
ordinary fragments.

Indee= d, the theory seems to provide a simple explanation for the puzzling
T= unguska event - the blast which destroyed a huge area of Siberian forest = in
1908.

While scientists have attributed this explosion to an = ordinary meteorite, no
traces of such an object have ever been found. = Moreover, there are frequent
smaller such events, occurring on a yearl= y basis, which are even more
puzzling.

The idea of mirror matte= r comes from the established fact that the
interactions of the known e= lementary particles, such as the electrons,
protons and neutrinos, vio= late mirror symmetry -- they have left-handed
interactions.

Thi= s experimental fact motivates the idea that a set of `mirror particles'exist. The left-handedness of the ordinary particles can then be balanc= ed by
the right-handedness of the mirror particles.

In this way= mirror reflection symmetry can exist but requires something
profoundl= y new -- a new form of matter called `mirror matter'.

In a recentl= y published book -- Shadowlands, quest for mirror matter in the
Univer= se -- the scientific case for the existence of mirror matter is given.
At the very least, there is a range of fascinating evidence for its<= BR>existence including: astronomical observations suggesting that most of= our
galaxy is made from a new form of matter - dark matter, puzzling = Jupiter
sized planets only a few million miles from their host star, a= nd the
mysterious slowing down of spacecraft in our solar system. Rema= rkably, it is
also possible that Pluto -- the most distant planet in o= ur solar system --
might even be a mirror world, which can explain var= ious anomalous features
of its orbit.

Perhaps, the most importa= nt consequence of all this -- if true -- is the
possibility of actuall= y extracting the mirror matter from the Tunguska
impact site and other= such sites around the world.

The mirror matter idea has not attra= cted a huge following among physicists.
In a recent UPI article, Howar= d Georgi of Harvard University says: "Foot's
ideas have not attracted = a huge following in the community that cares about
these things, perha= ps because the problems they solve, while interesting,
are not the mos= t critical puzzles that we are wrestling with."

Nevertheless, mirr= or matter, if it exists, would be a completely new type of
material wi= th a potentially huge commercial value.

Its scientific value would= be of no less importance

Copyright 2002, Space Daily

------=_NextPart_001_0002_01C1F809.3581D5E0-- From owner-public@setileague.org Fri May 10 22:22:06 2002 Received: from seti1.setileague.org ([204.176.91.10]) by Sentry.net (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g4B5M6P07605; Fri, 10 May 2002 22:22:06 -0700 (PDT) Received: (from majordom@localhost) by seti1.setileague.org (8.9.3 (PHNE_22672)/8.9.3) id BAA08098 for public-list; Sat, 11 May 2002 01:13:31 -0400 (EDT) X-Authentication-Warning: seti1.setileague.org: majordom set sender to owner-public@seti1.setileague.org using -f Received: from hotmail.com (oe35.pav0.hotmail.com [64.4.32.115]) by seti1.setileague.org (8.9.3 (PHNE_22672)/8.9.3) with ESMTP id BAA08087; Sat, 11 May 2002 01:13:24 -0400 (EDT) Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Fri, 10 May 2002 22:13:18 -0700 X-Originating-IP: [199.183.139.120] From: "LARRY KLAES" To: "BioAstro" Cc: "setipublic" , "volcor" Subject: SETI public: Astrobiology at 5 Years Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 01:13:11 -0400 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: MSN Explorer 7.00.0021.1900 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_000C_01C1F889.048DBB90" Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 May 2002 05:13:18.0228 (UTC) FILETIME=[8FB5F540:01C1F8AA] Sender: owner-public@setileague.org Precedence: bulk ------=_NextPart_001_000C_01C1F889.048DBB90 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" -- Astrobiology at T+5 Years http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=446 "Humans have a long-term interest - a craving for knowledge that probably pre-dates written history. This interest can best be expressed in the form of questions - questions that innumerable souls have asked of themselves, of others - and of the universe that surrounded them: "are we alone in the Universe? are we - and all life - a unique event that occurred only on our own Earth, or do we exist in a life-rich cosmos?" ------=_NextPart_001_000C_01C1F889.048DBB90 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

-- Astrobiolog= y at T+5 Years

http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?= id=3D446

"Humans have a long-term interest - a craving for knowled= ge that probably
pre-dates written history. This interest can best be = expressed in the form
of questions - questions that innumerable souls = have asked of themselves,
of others - and of the universe that surroun= ded them: "are we alone in the
Universe? are we - and all life - a uni= que event that occurred only on our
own Earth, or do we exist in a lif= e-rich cosmos?"

------=_NextPart_001_000C_01C1F889.048DBB90-- From owner-public@setileague.org Sat May 11 15:12:07 2002 Received: from seti1.setileague.org ([204.176.91.10]) by Sentry.net (8.11.4/8.11.4) with ESMTP id g4BMC6P09253; Sat, 11 May 2002 15:12:06 -0700 (PDT) Received: (from majordom@localhost) by seti1.setileague.org (8.9.3 (PHNE_22672)/8.9.3) id SAA09327 for public-list; Sat, 11 May 2002 18:00:07 -0400 (EDT) X-Authentication-Warning: seti1.setileague.org: majordom set sender to owner-public@seti1.setileague.org using -f Received: from hotmail.com (oe28.pav0.hotmail.com [64.4.32.108]) by seti1.setileague.org (8.9.3 (PHNE_22672)/8.9.3) with ESMTP id SAA09323; Sat, 11 May 2002 18:00:03 -0400 (EDT) Received: from mail pickup service by hotmail.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC; Sat, 11 May 2002 14:59:32 -0700 X-Originating-IP: [199.183.139.98] From: "LARRY KLAES" To: "setipublic" , "BioAstro" Subject: SETI public: Fw: Geomagnetic Storm Warning Date: Sat, 11 May 2002 17:59:26 -0400 MIME-Version: 1.0 X-Mailer: MSN Explorer 7.00.0021.1900 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0000_01C1F915.97008E30" Message-ID: X-OriginalArrivalTime: 11 May 2002 21:59:32.0852 (UTC) FILETIME=[21CA7B40:01C1F937] Sender: owner-public@setileague.org Precedence: bulk ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C1F915.97008E30 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable ----- Original Message ----- From: SpaceWeather.com Sent: Saturday, May 11, 2002 2:32 PM To: SpaceWeather.com Subject: Geomagnetic Storm Warning Space Weather News for May 11, 2002 http://www.spaceweather.com An unexpected interplanetary shock wave swept past Earth at 1000 UT on Ma= y 11th and triggered a moderate geomagnetic storm. High-latitude sky watchers -- i.e., those in northern Europe, Canada and across the norther= n tier of US states -- should be alert for auroras after local nightfall on Saturday. Although the shock wave was not a particularly strong one, it stimulated a geomagnetic storm because the interplanetary magnetic field near Earth is pointing south -- a condition that weakens our planet's magnetic defenses against solar wind disturbances. Visit spaceweather.co= m for updates. --- You are currently subscribed to spaceweather as: ljk4@msn.com To unsubscribe send a blank email to leave-spaceweather-662747W@snglist.m= sfc.nasa.gov ------=_NextPart_001_0000_01C1F915.97008E30 Content-Type: text/html; charset="iso-8859-1" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

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