From: LARRY KLAES (ljk4_at_msn.com)
Date: Mon Oct 20 2003 - 17:07:39 PDT
----- Original Message -----
From: Cary Oler
Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 2:31 PM
To: sun-earth_at_SkyandTelescope.com
Subject: AstroAlert: Significant New Solar Activity
=================================================================
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
=================================================================
A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
Images and Information on this event are available at:
http://www.spacew.com/astroalert.html
20 October 2003
SIGNIFICANT NEW SOLAR ACTIVITY IS IN-PROGRESS
A new and powerful sunspot complex has materialized over the last 2 days
capable of producing significant solar flare activity. The sunspot complex,
known as active Region 10484 (or simply Region 484), increased its size by
more than 5 times over the last 48 hours. It should now be easily visible to
the unaided (protected!) eye.
Region 484 produced a major class X1.1 solar x-ray flare at 16:51 UTC
(12:51 pm EDT) on 19 October followed by several smaller but notable events.
Growth has persisted despite this activity and additional major solar flares
are expected.
There is a notable possibility that some lucky observers may spot a
rare white-light flare from this spot complex. The area to concentrate on
(observationally) is the penumbral region between the two largest sunspots.
These two sunspots form a magnetic delta configuration where opposite
magnetic polarity sunspot umbrae are contained within a single penumbra. This
is also the site where most of the energetic solar flare activity has been
observed to-date. See www.spacew.com/astroalert.html for details.
Thus far, the coronal mass ejections associated with the energetic
flaring from Region 484 have not been directed Earthward, although there is a
chance the Earth may see a weaker glancing blow within the next 24 to 48
hours. This is expected to change over the next several days.
Over the next 4 days, Region 484 will rotate toward the central region
of the Sun (as viewed from the Earth). It will therefore be more radially
aligned and capable of producing more signifcant Earthbound coronal mass
ejection impacts. These impacts could include proton bombardments capable of
affecting high-latitude radio signal communications and enhancing space
radiation conditions for satellites and astronauts, increased atmospheric
drag on spacecraft, increased incidents of electronic anomalies on
spacecraft, permanent degradation of spacecraft solar array electrical
generation efficiencies, and unusual displays of auroral activity ("Northern
Lights"), to name just a few. The types and intensities of effects observed
will depend upon the strength of future solar activity. And that is something
that is difficult to predict.
A special listserver has been set up for individuals interested in
learning about or discussing matters dealing with solar activity and
Earthbound impacts. To subscribe, visit: www.spacew.com/aurora/email.html
Simple instructions are included therein. Information concerning current
activity, future activity and a wealth of information submitted by experts in
night photography and solar observers are available through this list.
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
==================================================================
AstroAlert is a free service of SKY & TELESCOPE, the Essential
Magazine of Astronomy (http://SkyandTelescope.com/). This e-mail
was sent to AstroAlert subscribers. If you feel you received it
in error, or to unsubscribe from AstroAlert, please send a plain-
text e-mail to majordomo_at_SkyandTelescope.com with the following
line -- and nothing else -- in the body of the message:
unsubscribe sun-earth e-mail_at_address.com
replacing "e-mail_at_address.com" with your actual e-mail address.
==================================================================
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.6 : Fri Oct 24 2003 - 17:25:55 PDT