SETI public: Fw: AstroAlert: Warning for Possible "Northern Lights" Activity

From: LARRY KLAES (ljk4_at_msn.com)
Date: Mon Jul 28 2003 - 22:20:57 PDT

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    ----- Original Message -----
    From: Cary Oler
    Sent: Saturday, July 26, 2003 4:08 PM
    To: sun-earth_at_SkyandTelescope.com
    Subject: AstroAlert: Warning for Possible "Northern Lights" Activity

    =================================================================
    This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
    =================================================================

                                A s t r o A l e r t
                                   Sun-Earth Alert

                              Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                                http://www.spacew.com

                                     26 July 2003

    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORA WARNING

         There is a fair to good chance the "northern lights" may become
    visible over middle latitude regions tonight and possibly tommorrow night.
    Effects of a well placed solar coronal hole are producing favorable solar
    wind conditions that could lead to the development of periods of moderately
    strong auroral substorm activity during the next 6 to 48 hours.

         A middle latitude aurora warning has been issued and is valid through
    tonight and tommorrow. Details follow below.

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                       MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                        WATCH ISSUED: 18:20 UTC, 26 JULY 2003

                    /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

    VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
    VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 28 JULY

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 26 - 27 JULY (UTC DAYS)
    MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 26 - 28 JULY

    PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 40, 30, 25, 20 (26 JULY - 29 JULY)

    POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE

    POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 24 TO 48 HOURS
                                        MINOR BELT = 48 TO 72 HOURS

    ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: PRIOR TO AND NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

    EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE, BECOMING LOW AFTER EARLY MORNING MOONRISE

    OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO GOOD

    AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

       NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
       IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO OHIO TO PENNSYLVANIA TO
       NEW JERSEY.

    ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

       IRELAND TO UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO
       SOUTHERN SWEDEN TO LATVIA TO ESTONIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.

       NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTH EASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE
       PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

    SYNOPSIS...

         The leading edge of an anticipated solar coronal hole based disturbance
    is producing enhanced solar wind characteristics that should lead to
    intensified levels of auroral storming over the next several hours to perhaps
    the next 48 hours. There is a good chance some middle latitude locations
    could observe periods of activity over the next few days.

         This warning will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
    28 July. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
    information, visit: http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
    plots of current activity, visit: http://www.spacew.com/plots.html. For
    software to make life considerably more "internet friendly", visit:
    http://www.spacew.com/swim (Windows XP, 2000 or NT) or
    http://www.spacew.com/aurora (Windows 95, 98 or Me).

                  PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
                     http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html

    ** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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