From: LARRY KLAES (ljk4@msn.com)
Date: Fri Oct 04 2002 - 06:41:37 PDT
----- Original Message -----
From: Cary Oler
Sent: Thursday, October 03, 2002 9:24 PM
To: sun-earth@SkyandTelescope.com
Subject: AstroAlert: Heads Up! Another Mid-Latitude Aurora Watch - 03-04 October
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This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
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A s t r o A l e r t
Sun-Earth Alert
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
http://www.spacew.com
03 October 2002
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH 03-04 OCTOBER
Another coronal mass ejection is influencing auroral activity. The
northern tier of the United States and much of Canada may be well-placed
for observing occasional periods of auroral activity over the next 12 to 24
hours (local evening and early morning hours of 03/04 October). Northern
European regions, New Zealand and perhaps even areas of southeastern
Australia may spot periods of activity as well.
Current conditions, real-time plots and updated information can be found
at: http://www.spacew.com. Some spectacular photo's of recent auroral storm
activity can also be found in the gallery at: http://www.spacew.com/gallery
A middle latitude auroral activity WATCH was issued earlier today. But
due to technical difficulties, could not be delivered to the list recipients
until now. We apologize for any inconvenience this may have caused. The
official watch statement is appended below.
Please report any sightings of activity to:
http://www.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
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MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 15:35 UTC, 03 OCTOBER 2002
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VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 04 OCTOBER
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 03 OCT (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 03 - O4 OCT
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 23, 15, 12, 12 (03 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO CENTRAL IDAHO TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO NORTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN
NEW YORK STATE TO VERMONT TO NEW HAMPSHIRE TO SOUTHERN MAINE.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
UNITED KINGDOM TO NORTHERN NETHERLANDS TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN
POLAND TO LITHUANIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF
NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
Another coronal mass ejection was observed passing the ACE spacecraft
yesterday near 22:15 UTC. This disturbance has begun producing sustained
southward directed interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) values (negative Bz
values in the solar wind) that could promote occasional moderately strong
substorm activity. Isolated dark-sky middle latitude regions may spot periods
of substorm activity, particularly if the current solar wind configuration
persists. Observers are encouraged to watch conditions closely.
This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 04 October.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
http://solar.spacew.com/submitsighting.html
Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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