From: LARRY KLAES (email@example.com)
Date: Thu Aug 15 2002 - 18:37:11 PDT
----- Original Message -----
From: Cary Oler
Sent: Thursday, August 15, 2002 7:26 PM
Subject: AstroAlert: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity WATCH - 15 August
This Is SKY & TELESCOPE's AstroAlert for Sun-Earth Interactions
A s t r o A l e r t
Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
15 August 2002
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
A mild interplanetary shock was observed impacting the Earth near 18:55
UTC (2:55 pm EDT) today. The disturbance has intensified levels of auroral
activity over the high latitudes and has a chance of producing periods of
visible activity over many dark-sky middle latitude regions over the next 12
to 24 hours. Visit http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html for current
information concerning auroral activity.
The official middle latitude auroral activity watch bulletin is appended
MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH
WATCH ISSUED: 21:35 UTC, 15 AUGUST 2002
VALID BEGINNING AT: IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) ON 17 AUGUST
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 15-16 AUGUST (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 15-17 AUGUST
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 25, 15, 12, 12 (16 AUGUST - 19 AUGUST)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: LOW TO MODERATE
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 12 TO 24 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR TO POOR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
WASHINGTON STATE TO IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN
IOWA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHERN INDIANA TO NORTHERN OHIO TO
PENNSYLVANIA TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW JERSEY.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
ENGLAND TO NORTHERN BELGIUM TO NORTHERN GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
LITHUANIA TO SOUTHERN LATVIA TO NORTHERN RUSSIA. NEW ZELAND AND EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA MAY ALSO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
A mild interplanetary shock was observed impacting the near at 18:55 UTC
on 15 August (2:55 pm EDT). Although fairly mild, the disturbance has
elevated solar wind velocities to respectable values near 600 km/sec and has
maintained a minor southward configuration of the interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF), which should help maintain or slightly intensify levels of
auroral substorm activity. Substorms are currently occurring over extreme
northern Europe and northern Russia. Substorming may become intense enough
over the coming hours to result in visible sightings of activity over some
dark-sky middle latitude regions.
This watch will remain valid through 19:00 UTC (3 pm EDT) on 17 August.
It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated information, visit:
PLEASE REPORT OBSERVATIONS OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
Observations reported here are permanently recorded for future study and
are immediately made available in real-time to a large network of observers
world-wide via the Internet, e-mail and pager. If you observe activity, your
assistance to contribute to this database would be appreciated.
A FREE trial of the space weather "SWIM" software package is now
available at: http://www.spacew.com/swim. For those without a Windows NT,
2000 or XP system, download the Aurora Monitor software at:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora. Use these packages to monitor current
** End of the AstroAlert Bulletin **
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