SETI [ASTRO] Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH


Larry Klaes (lklaes@bbn.com)
Thu, 01 Jul 1999 10:29:18 -0400


>X-Authentication-Warning: brickbat12.mindspring.com: majordom set sender to owner-astro using -f >Date: Wed, 30 Jun 1999 23:36:12 -0300 (ADT) >From: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA> >X-Sender: >X-Sender: andromed@Skye >To: ASTRO <astro@lists.mindspring.com> >Subject: [ASTRO] Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH >Sender: owner-astro@brickbat12.mindspring.com >Reply-To: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA> > >>From Solar Terrestrial Dispatch - Alberta - Canada >================================================== > > Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH > > ACTIVATION: 06:00 UTC ON 02 JULY > VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 04 JULY > > HIGH RISK PERIOD: 02-03 JULY (UT days) > MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 02-04 JULY > > PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 24, 24, 15, 12 (02 JULY - 05 JULY) > > POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE > ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT, BEFORE > MOONRISE > EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NIL UNTIL AFTER MOONRISE, THEN BECOMING > HIGH > OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR > > AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO > SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN > PENNSYLVANIA TO DARK SKY SITES NEAR NEW HAMPSHIRE. > > ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM... > > NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN EUROPE TO NORTHERN > USSR, INCLUDING MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND. > EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA (PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEASTERN > REGIONS) AND MOST OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY UNDER > DARK SKIES. > > SYNOPSIS... > > At least three solar coronal mass ejections are currently in-transit to > the Earth. We expect the first to arrive sometime near 17:00 UTC on 02 July, > although it could be several hours earlier or later than this. The second > disturbance is probably travelling within the higher-velocity wake of the > first disturbance and may serve to strengthen or prolong the duration of the > activity associated with the first disturbance. It may arrive during the > early to mid UTC hours of 03 July. The last disturbance currently being > tracked should arrive sometime during the mid to late UTC hours of 03 July > and again may reinforce and/or prolong the duration of the activity > associated with the first two disturbances. As a result, auroral activity > during the period from 02 to 04 July is expected to be unsettled to > sporadically active with a fair chance for minor substorming at times near > the local midnight sectors. Analysis of all three disturbances suggest the > imbedded magnetic fields may support higher levels of auroral activity than > previous disturbances have produced during the last week. For this reason, > and the possibility of enhanced activity persisting for a longer than normal > period of time, we have issued this middle latitude auroral activity watch. > We are expecting additional solar coronal mass ejections over the next 72 > hours that will have a high probability of impacting the Earth. > Updates will be posted as necessary. > > This watch will remain valid until 19:00 UTC on 04 July. It will > then be updated or allowed to expire. > > PLEASE SUBMIT ANY OBSERVATIONS YOU MAKE OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO: > http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/auroras.html > > ** End of Watch ** > > >



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