archive: SETI [ASTRO] Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH

SETI [ASTRO] Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH

Larry Klaes ( lklaes@bbn.com )
Wed, 12 May 1999 08:00:42 -0400

>X-Authentication-Warning: brickbat12.mindspring.com: majordom set sender
to owner-astro using -f
>Date: Wed, 12 May 1999 07:42:44 -0300 (ADT)
>From: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>X-Sender: andromed@Sleet
>To: ASTRO <astro@lists.mindspring.com>
>Subject: [ASTRO] Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH
>Sender: owner-astro@brickbat12.mindspring.com
>Reply-To: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>
>from Solar Terrestrial Dispatch - Alberta - Canada
>====================================================
>
> Middle Latitutde Auroral Activity WATCH
>
> ACTIVATION: 12:00 UTC ON 12 MAY
> VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 14 MAY
>
> HIGH RISK PERIOD: 13 MAY (UT days)
> MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 12-13 MAY
>
> PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 15, 25, 15, 10 (12 MAY - 15 MAY)
>
> POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE
>
> ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
>
> EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE
>
> OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
>
> AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTHERN IDAHO TO SOUTHEASTERN
> MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN
> MICHIGAN TO DARK-SKY SITES OF NEW YORK STATE TO DARK-SKY SITES OF
> MAINE.
>
> ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
>
> NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM TO EXTREME NORTHERN EUROPE TO NORTHERN
> USSR, INCLUDING MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF NORWAY, SWEDEN AND FINLAND.
> EXTREME SOUTHERN REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA (PARTICULARLY THE SOUTHEASTERN
> REGIONS) AND MOST OF NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY
> UNDER DARK SKIES.
>
> SYNOPSIS...
>
> Auroral activity is expected to gradually intensify over the next
> 24 to 48 hours as effects from two primary disturbances interact with
> the Earth.
> The first is a well placed solar coronal hole which could provide a
> gradual increase in the frequency and intensity of auroral activity
> over the higher latitude regions. The second disturbance is the result
> of a solar flare associated coronal mass ejection and has the potential
> to be a bit more significant. It may further intensify auroral activity
> to levels which may provide periods of sporadically visible auroral
> activity over many middle latitude dark-sky sites on 13 May. There are
> several other smaller coronal mass ejections which may also have had an
> Earthward-directed component. The combined effects of these
> disturbances should result in increased auroral activity during the 12
> to 14 May time-frame, with the 13th being the most likely date of the
> highest level of activity. Although this is not expected
> to be a significant disturbance, the uncertainty is high enough to
> warrant issuing this watch. The near-new phase of the moon should also
> help to provide optimal observing conditions over dark-sky regions.
> Auroral activity should become quiet again by 15 May.
>
> This watch will remain valid until 19:00 UTC on 14 May. It will
> then be updated or allowed to expire.
>
> PLEASE SUBMIT ANY OBSERVATIONS YOU MAKE OF AURORAL ACTIVITY TO:
> http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/auroras.html
>
> ** End of Watch **
>
>
>