archive: SETI Drake Equation

SETI Drake Equation

Don Adams ( )
Mon, 24 Aug 1998 12:30:12 -0400 (EDT)

We do make **a lot** of assumptions, especially in the SETI
business. I wondered how good the Drake Equation might be?
So since I believe that one experiment is work a 1000 expert
opinions, I did the QZZ or Adams' equation.... ie how hard
is it to make contact with someone you want to talk to, on the air.
Lots of times it seems very difficult and other times, it
seems easy (serendip?) (or no amount of planning can ever beat
dumb luck)

So I put my HF radio in the car and on my way to work, I listen
to 14.204 Mhz. And to enhance the response, I even call "CQ Seti",
which I think should enhance the outcome by a factor of X2 (see below)

Since I just got the list of hams, I can move down to line 2 and hard
code in a real number.

850? Seti Members
360 Hams 360
80 %HF Capable 288
1 Time (hr) on the air/week 1.714286
10 % Time Listening to 14.204 0.171429
10 My Time (hrs)on the air/week 0.010204
75 % My time On 14.204 0.00765 hits /hr
200 %Call CQ 0.015306
65.33333 hours /hit

Well I just went on vacation, so I stopped the experiment and I got
*no* hits..... I did this for 12 weeks. My "observing time" around
14.204 was approx 120 hrs. So I should of had a "hit".....
Obviously the problem is much harder than I thought..... There
probably are other terms that I missed in the equation....


over and out.....Don wa8qzz