archive: SETI [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning Update -

SETI [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning Update -

Larry Klaes ( lklaes@bbn.com )
Wed, 30 Dec 1998 07:59:17 -0500

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>Date: Wed, 30 Dec 1998 08:22:17 -0400 (AST)
>From: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>X-Sender: andromed@Sleet
>To: ASTRO <astro@lists.mindspring.com>
>Subject: [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning Update - 30
Dec (fwd)
>Sender: owner-astro@brickbat12.mindspring.com
>Reply-To: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>
>>From Solar Terrestrial Dispatch - Alberta - Canada
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> POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING
>
> UPDATED: 09:35 UTC, 30 DECEMBER
>
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>PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 8421 AT N26E00 @ 30/0000Z
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>| ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS |
>|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
>| DAYS | C5.0 | M1.0 | M5.0 | X1.0 | X5.0 | >X12.0 |
>|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
>|1(+)GP| 100 % | 70 % | 50 % | 30 % | 20 % | 10 % |
>|3(+)GP| 100 % | 80 % | 55 % | 40 % | 30 % | 15 % |
>|5( )GP| 100 % | 85 % | 60 % | 50 % | 35 % | 15 % |
>|7( ) P| 100 % | 85 % | 60 % | 50 % | 35 % | 15 % |
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
>(+) = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
>( ) = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
>(-) = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
>(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
>(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
> exists that the event may be geoeffective.
>xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
> sometime over the next number of DAYS.
>WLT = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.
>
>The above chart should be used as a guide only. It represents anticipated
>levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
>Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.
>
>
>SYNOPSIS:
>
> Solar Region 8419 continues to pose a threat for potential major M-class
>flares. However, this region appears to have stabilized over the last 24
>hours. Region 8421 is now thought to be the primary threat, having increased
>significantly in size over the last 24 hours. The region also has an unusual
>magnetic configuration with possibly two or three small delta's spread along
>a predominantly east-west oriented neutral line. The plage in this region is
>now holding at flare-bright levels. There is a concern this region may
>quickly become capable of producing a major M or X-class solar flare over the
>next 24 to 72 hours, particularly if growth continues.
>
> This region is now well placed for producing geoeffective interplanetary
>disturbances should it be associated with the launch of coronal mass
>ejections. It is also becoming a greater threat for producing increased
>energetic proton densities in the event of a proton flare (which is a
>reasonable possibility).
>
> To observe these significant solar events in realtime on your own
>computer, interested persons are encouraged to investigate the software at:
>
> http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html
>
>
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