archive: SETI [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning - 29 Dec

SETI [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning - 29 Dec

Larry Klaes ( lklaes@bbn.com )
Tue, 29 Dec 1998 13:07:26 -0500

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>Date: Tue, 29 Dec 1998 11:39:42 -0400 (AST)
>From: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>X-Sender: andromed@Sleet
>To: ASTRO <astro@lists.mindspring.com>
>Subject: [ASTRO] WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning - 29 Dec
>Sender: owner-astro@brickbat12.mindspring.com
>Reply-To: Michael Boschat <andromed@ATM.DAL.CA>
>
>>From Solar Terrestrial Dispatch - Alberta - Canada
>=======================================================
>
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>
> POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING
>
> ISSUED: 11:45 UTC, 29 DECEMBER
>
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>
>
>PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 8419 AT N26W40 @ 0000Z
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>| ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS |
>|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
>| DAYS | C5.0 | M1.0 | M5.0 | X1.0 | X5.0 | >X12.0 |
>|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
>|1(+)GP| 100 % | 70 % | 50 % | 30 % | 10 % | 5 % |
>|3(+)GP| 100 % | 80 % | 60 % | 40 % | 20 % | 10 % |
>|5( )GP| 100 % | 90 % | 65 % | 50 % | 30 % | 15 % |
>|7( ) P| 100 % | 95 % | 65 % | 50 % | 30 % | 15 % |
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
>(+) = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
>( ) = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
>(-) = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
>(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
>(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
> exists that the event may be geoeffective.
>xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
> sometime over the next number of DAYS.
>WLT = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.
>
>The above chart should be used as a guide only. It represents anticipated
>levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
>Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.
>
>
>SYNOPSIS:
>
> Active solar sunspot region 8419 has almost doubled in size over the
>last 24 hours and contains an area of complex magnetic fields oriented in a
>delta configuration (opposite magnetic polarity umbra within a single
>penumbra). Recent magnetograms indicate small but moderately strong areas of
>developing magnetic shear and increasing magnetic gradients in the
>intermediate spot complex. We believe a major solar flare may erupt from this
>region anytime over the next several days. There is an attendant threat for
>potential increases in proton densities in the near-Earth space environment
>should a major flare erupt. The region is becoming well connected to the
>Earth and could produce a moderate to large proton flare should a major flare
>develop.
>
> To observe these significant solar events in realtime on your own
>computer, interested persons are encouraged to investigate the software at:
>
> http://solar.uleth.ca/solar/www/swarm.html
>
>
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>
>