archive: Re: SETI [Fwd: Probability of other ET Life is 1]

Re: SETI [Fwd: Probability of other ET Life is 1]
Sat, 19 Dec 1998 00:34:18 EST

In a message dated 12/18/98 8:33:44 AM Eastern Standard Time,

> In the book Aczel writes that the probability (P) that there
> is life around at least one other star in the Galaxy or
> Universe is given by:
> P = 1 - (1-P0)^N, where P0 is the probability of life existing
> around any given star, and N is the number
> of stars (in our Galaxy N is approximately
> 3.0E+11, or in the observable Universe N
> is approximately 3.0E+22)...

Aczel is a genius. I have often had the same thoughts, but didn't have the
presence of mind to put the formula on paper. His formula may need tweaking
but the basic principle is, of course, correct. I hope he wins the Nobel Prize
in exobiology.

John Marcus.