P0 is "the probablility that life exists around some
star".
It is not zero because we are life and we exist ...
So we know this one fact: P0 > 0, that is, P0 is NOT
zero! It is just a fact regarding P0, nothing more ...
The rest follows from P = 1 - (1-P0)^N, where N is the
number of stars chosen ...
Al
>"Dr. H. Paul Shuch" wrote:
>
> At 05:22 AM 12/18/98 -0800, Alfred A. Aburto Jr. wrote:
>
> >In the book Aczel writes that the probability (P) that there
> >is life around at least one other star in the Galaxy
>
> >First of all, we know that P0 is not zero, because life
> >already exists on Earth.
>
> >So, if this
> >value of P0 is accurate, then, yes (!), there must be other
> >life in the Universe! This is a pretty profound conclusion!
>
> Maybe I'm missing something here. We determine that P0, the probability of
> life forming, is not zero because we exist, and then we use that fact to
> say that P, the probability that life has formed, equals 1. It's been a
> long time since I took probability theory (as opposed to just plain
> statistics), but to say that live exists in the Universe because life
> exists in the Universe looks to me like circular reasoning.
>
> Still, I gotta read that book.
>
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> H. Paul Shuch, Ph.D. Executive Director, The SETI League, Inc.
> 433 Liberty Street, PO Box 555, Little Ferry NJ 07643 USA
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>
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