archiv~1: Re: SETI Arecibo message to m13

Re: SETI Arecibo message to m13

jerry and judy ( jerbidoc@zianet.com )
Thu, 5 Nov 1998 14:41:45 -0700

>Hi Jerry,
>
>Its all rather curious. There really ought to be super
>civilizations out there (and by that I mean vast users
>of energy) and they would be easily detectable by us
>right now. But instead, nothing, not the slightest hint
>of super civilizations.
>
>Think of ourselves moving ahead down the technology road.
>It really won't be that long before we have a colony on
>the Moon and Mars. It really won't be long until we occupy
>the entire Solar System (a thousand years?). By that time
>we as a civilization will be vast users of energy. We would
>be easily noticed elsewhere (outside the Solar System)
>communicating across the Solar System using terrawatts or
>more of power (we use kilowatts to megawatts to communicate
>around the Earth today but 1000 years from now when the whole
>Solar System is our base it will be gigawatts and terrawatts).
>These signals would be easily detectable over great distance
>by modest instruments. Yet, we see nothing. What are we
>missing?

Well, they've learned to be quiet, they use another 'system' for energy
(unimaginable at this point to us), or there's something very favorable
about our Earth-Moon system that allowed us to be among the 'first' to
arise in our quarter of this spiral. How many other planets have moons
that are so large in comparison? Did the (unlikely) 'formation' of the
Moon modify the Earth's atmosphere and its core so favorably for life that
we are one of the few systems where multi-cellular life has been 'forced
for its own survival' to evolve, so early in this galaxy's lifetime?

>I work as an engineer. I'm used to describing the world with
>statistics. There are mean values of course but there is
>always some variance around the mean. This is the way of the
>world and the universe. It just does not make sense that we
>are the only ones in the Galaxy or the Universe. There are
>others out there.

There are many unknown values and ranges of values, they can point to one
tech/civ in every 77 Milky Way-sized spirals or to one tech/civ every 2000
LYs in every Milky Way-sized spiral.

>I suppose there could be a 'gap' but there ought to be other
>civilizations in transition that we would detect.

It might be a short period for transition after artificial intelligence
takes over from the 'inefficient' trial-and-error evolved beings. (grin)

>If other civilizations (technological) develop as we will then
>they will find it very hard to hide whole worlds, whole Solar
>Systems, whole Galaxies! I don't think we can turn ourselves
>off that easily. As we grow and expand we WILL consume and
>use MORE energy. A fact of life I'd say. That energy would be
>detectable. We can't really hide.

Galactic natural selection might weed us out if we can't succeed in hiding
during our early developmental stages. Only 'unusual' and quiet tech/civs
might survive early galactic history, like the South American sloths
(different and quiet).

>So what is going on? What
>clue(s) are we missing? Is 'intelligence' or 'technology'
>doomed to fail?
>This question of 'where are they' (the super to ultra advanced
>civilizations and vast users of energy) question sure does
>raise my curiosity ...
>
>Someday we'll know exactly of course. We just got to keep
>moving ahead and see what we find ...
>

Well, I'm all for scientific and even exobiological 'surveys', but why
should we potentially bring the unfathomable power of a multi-million year
old civilization into our living space? Does that make sense? We only
have our sample of one, this planet and its evolutionary record and the
human historical record to go on, but has there ever been a beneficial
outcome for the underdog?? Marsupials were supplanted everywhere that they
were contacted by placental mammals. Europe very quickly conquered and
exploited most of the less developed groups. There's little doubt where we
will fit in, if we don't, by happenstance, get an extended chance to
develop.

Jerry

>Al Aburto
>