From: LARRY KLAES (ljk4_at_msn.com)
Date: Mon Oct 15 2007 - 13:22:44 PDT
>From: Centauri Dreams <gilster_at_mindspring.com>
>Reply-To: Centauri Dreams <gilster_at_mindspring.com>
>To: ljk4_at_msn.com
>Subject: Centauri Dreams
>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2007 14:04:46 -0500 (CDT)
>
>Centauri Dreams
>
>///////////////////////////////////////////
>SETIs Dilemma: Break the Great Silence?
>
>Posted: 15 Oct 2007 01:24 PM CDT
>http://www.centauri-dreams.org/?p=1514
>
>
>When Alexander Zaitsev presented his recent paper at the International
>Astronautical Congress in Hyderabad (India) recently, he spoke from the
>center of a widening controversy. The question is straightforward: Should
>we broadcast messages intentionally designed to be received by
>extraterrestrial civilizations, thereby notifying them of our existence?
>Zaitzev, chief scientist at the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of
>Radio Engineering and Electronics, addressed the question by seeing a
>necessary relationship between SETI (the search for ETI) and METI
>(messaging to other civilizations).
>
>Indeed, the Russian scientist, working at the Evpatoria Deep Space Center
>in the Ukraine, has the experience to discuss METI from a practical
>standpoint. Evpatoria has already transmitted a number of messages, the
>so-called Cosmic Call signal (1999) being made up of various audio, video,
>image and data files submitted by people around the world. The later
>Teen-Age Message, aimed at six Sun-like stars, was sent in 2001; another
>Cosmic Call followed in 2003.
>
>Zaitzev has in the interim emerged as a leading spokesman for direct
>messaging to extraterrestrial civilizations, an idea now hotly debated by a
>relatively small group of researchers concerned about its implications. I
>note the size of the debate pointedly it is remarkable to me that an issue
>that has the potential of involving the entire human species in what could
>become a first contact scenario is known only to a limited number of
>professionals, within whose ranks there is by no means agreement.
>
>Thus, having coffee with a neighbor not long ago, I brought up the
>SETI/METI debate, curious about his reaction. I asked whether he believed
>transmitting messages intentionally designed for contact was a sound idea.
>Whats the problem? he asked. If anyones out there, the sooner we get to
>know them, the better. When I urged caution, pointing out that we know
>nothing whatsoever about what an alien species might think or do, he
>smiled. Wasnt I just bringing up tired science fiction scenarios like the
>movie Independence Day? And what about the I Love Lucy factor?
>
>The latter, of course, is that expanding sphere of electromagnetic
>radiation that seems to flag our presence in the form of old television and
>radio shows (Fred Mertz as Terras first ambassador to the stars the mind
>boggles). Whether or not such signals would actually be detectible is
>problematic, but Zaitsev turns to an even stronger source of signalling,
>planetary radars like Arecibo, Goldstone and Evpatoria itself, whose active
>search for near-Earth asteroids would represent a more likely chance for
>reception.
>
>When Zaitsev analyzed radar observations of asteroids and comets at the
>three radar sites, he found that none of these transmissions crosses the
>habitable zone of a star. That would imply that a civilization like our
>own, restricted to its own planet, would be unlikely to pick them up. In
>any case, a civilization bound to its own planet presents no threat to
>Earth in the first place. Whereas Kardashev Type II or III civilizations,
>with far greater energy resources at their disposal and presumably at home
>in interstellar space, would be more likely to receive them.
>
>In his paper, Zaitsev puts the matter this way:
>
>Accidental detection by such civilizations of signals from the planetary
>and asteroid radars of some other civilization is extremely unlikely. If we
>are afraid of powerful and aggressive civilizations of Type II and Type
>III, which live practically everywhere, it is necessary to forbid numerous
>pointless transmissions of asteroid and planetary radars as their radiation
>gradually illuminates greater areas that promotes its detection by star
>aggressors and interventionists.
>
>In other words, if were serious about trying to keep our existence unknown,
>we had better stop using our planetary radars in the first place, which
>would mean giving up our protection against catastrophic strikes on Earth
>by comets or asteroids. Its ironic that were discussing closing Arecibos
>planetary radar as we ponder such matters, but in any case, Zaitsev goes on
>to argue that there is less danger from interstellar messages like
>Evpatorias, targeted at specific stars, than the radar transmissions we
>have been making for some time in our own defense.
>
>Zaitsev sees a close connection between SETI and METI in that both require
>an identical selection from the same target star lists, both involve
>consideration of optimum frequencies and likelihoods of success, so that
>the question of where to search and where to send are equivalent. He calls
>for the further use of Arecibo, Goldstone and Evpatoria in sending future
>interstellar messages, and notes that SETI itself may be dangerous. What if
>an uncontrolled SETI search ended up with fanatics in control of weapons
>derived from knowledge received from a high-level civilization?
>
>As an onlooker in this debate for some time now, I keep running into a
>crucial problem. Again, it is the size of the participating audience. David
>Brin has been an advocate of the idea that we need wider involvement from
>other discipilines in deciding how to handle the METI question, and I have
>to agree with that assessment. It would be interesting to learn of any
>first-contact situation on Earth involving a technologically superior
>civilization and a less developed one where the latter did not suffer.
>
>I admit to having little patience with sociology, but it would certainly be
>helpful to have a historians take on all this, and for that matter, people
>in the arts. We have a model for this kind of gathering. It is the 1983 Los
>Alamos meeting called the Conference on Interstellar Migration and the
>Human Experience. There, biologist met social scientist, historian met
>physicist, in an attempt to put our past human experience into perspective
>as we look forward to a future beyond the Solar System.
>
>Why relate possible alien contact to scenarios that are expressly human?
>Because these are all we have to work with, and therefore must form the
>basis of our investigation. Which raises another troubling question. Human
>nature has shown its colors for good and ill throughout recorded history, a
>mixed record of dazzling achievements and horrific barbarism, depending on
>where you look. Would aliens be better than us, or worse? Or would they be
>much like us in having a mixture of motivations of the sort that in our own
>history has often led to misunderstandings, brutality and war?
>
>At this point these can only be speculations. But how helpful it would be
>to see a meeting like the Conference on Interstellar Migration convened to
>address these matters from as wide a range of perspectives as possible. The
>interest for such a gathering seems to be growing. I would hope it could
>also raise the consciousness of the general public to an issue that, as we
>continue our technological advance, may well play a role in our long-term
>future. SETI/METI is a good story, but its not science fiction any more.
>And we need to establish an informed consensus before we send more
>messages.
>
>For more on the Los Alamos conference, see Ben R. Finney and Eric M. Jones,
>Interstellar Migration and the Human Experience (Berkeley: University of
>California Press, 1985).
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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