From: LARRY KLAES (ljk4_at_msn.com)
Date: Sat Feb 14 2004 - 07:54:18 PST
>From: cunews_at_cornell.edu
>Reply-To: cunews_at_cornell.edu
>To: CUNEWS-LIFE_SCIENCE-L_at_cornell.edu, CUNEWS-SOCIAL_SCIENCE-L_at_cornell.edu,
> CUNEWS-SCIENCE-L_at_cornell.edu
>Subject: Cornell News: Malnutrition in 2054
>Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2004 16:35:03 -0500
>
>Global malnutrition and human misery will be 'unimaginable' problem by year
>2054, Cornell ecologist predicts
>
>EMBARGOED UNTIL FEB. 13, 2004, AT 2:30 P.M. PST, 5:30 P.M. EST
>
>Contact: Roger Segelken
>Office: 607-255-9736
>E-mail: hrs2_at_cornell.edu
>
>
>SEATTLE -- If today's global statistics of more than 3 billion malnourished
>people are worrisome, try projecting 50 years into the future, when Earth's
>population could exceed 12 billion and there could be even less water and
>land, per capita, to grow food.
>
>The current level of malnutrition among nearly half the world's population
>of 6.3 billion is unprecedented in human history, says agricultural
>ecologist David Pimentel of Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y. "Every trend
>-- from decreasing per-capita availability of food and cropland to
>population growth -- shows the predicament becoming even more dire,"
>Pimentel says.
>
>"In the next 50 years, the degree of malnutrition, resultant disease and
>human misery is unimaginable. But we have to try to consider the future
>while there is still time to make meaningful changes, to reverse these
>trends and ensure a sustainable food supply."
>
>Pimentel's views were presented by his colleague, Paul Reitan of the
>University at Buffalo, today (Feb. 13) at the annual meeting of the
>American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) in Seattle. The
>title of the talk was "The Importance of Soil in Sustaining Civilization."
>
>In the prepared text, Pimentel said he saw several troubling trends:
>
>o Harvests of cereal grains, the mainstay of human diets and 80 percent of
>the world food supply, have increased slightly since 1985 but not nearly
>fast enough to keep pace with increases in population.
>
>o Rising malnutrition increases human susceptibility to other diseases,
>such as malaria, diarrhea and AIDS.
>
>o The prediction of a 12 billion global population by 2054 is based on the
>current rate of growth with each couple producing an average of 2.9
>children. Even if nations' policy changes reduce the birth rate to an
>average of 2 children per couple, the 12 billion mark would be reached in
>70 years.
>
>o Because more than 99.8 percent of human food comes from the land,
>doubling the planet's population will further stress resources for fresh
>water, renewable and fossil energy, fertilizers and pesticides.
>
>o For the most finite resource of all, land, each year more than 10 million
>hectares of cropland are degraded and lost because of soil erosion. This
>comes at a time when food production should be increasing dramatically to
>meet the needs of a rapidly expanding population. Pimentel noted that
>per-capita cropland has declined 20 percent worldwide in the past decade.
>
>"The only way to reverse the growing imbalance between human population
>numbers and food supply is to actively conserve cropland, fresh water,
>energy and other environmental resources," Pimentel said.
>
>"We must focus on developing appropriate, ecologically safe agricultural
>technologies for increasing food production. Either we are brave enough to
>limit our numbers or nature will impose its limits on our numbers and
>existence," he added.
>
>-30-
>
>EDITORS: David Pimentel can be reached for comment in Ithaca at (607)
>257-1798.
>
>The web version of this release may be found at
>http://www.news.cornell.edu/releases/Feb04/AAAS.pimentel.hrs.html
>--
>
>Cornell University News Service
>Surge 3
>Cornell University
>Ithaca, NY 14853
>607-255-4206
>cunews_at_cornell.edu
>http://www.news.cornell.edu
>
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