SETI bioastro: Fw: NASA OZONE SATELLITE IMPROVES SNOWSTORM FORECASTS

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----- Original Message -----
From: Tara Holby
Sent: Thursday, August 07, 2003 12:32 PM
To: gsfc_press_releases_at_listserv.gsfc.nasa.gov
Subject: NASA OZONE SATELLITE IMPROVES SNOWSTORM FORECASTS

Rob Gutro

Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. August 7, 2003
(Phone: 301/286-4044)

RELEASE: 03-77

NASA OZONE SATELLITE IMPROVES SNOWSTORM FORECASTS

Scientists in sunny, hot Florida are thinking cold thoughts since they added
ozone measurements from a NASA satellite into computer weather forecast
models and improved several factors in a forecast of a major winter
snowstorm that hit the United States in 2000.
When scientists added ozone measurements, predictions of snowstorm
intensity, snowfall amounts and the storm track all improved for a storm
that hit Washington, D.C. As such, they may be able to do the same for
future storms, according to a study published in a recent issue of the
American Meteorological Society's Journal of Applied Meteorology.

Kun-Il Jang and Xiaolei Zou, research scientists from Florida State
University, used data from NASA's Earth Probe/Total Ozone Mapping
Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite to create a more accurate prediction of a
January 2000 snowstorm in the Washington metropolitan area. Other
researchers included Mel Shapiro of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration's (NOAA) Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL), Manuel
Pondeca of NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), C.
Davis of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder,
Colo., and A. Krueger of the University of Maryland, Baltimore County.

The TOMS satellite monitors daily changes in the amounts of ozone in Earth's
atmosphere stretching from the Earth's surface into the stratosphere, as
high as 30 miles up. In this study, the scientists decided to add ozone data
to an historic forecast and improved it.

The scientists added air motions in the upper atmosphere inferred from TOMS
measurements of ozone into the computer model, along with lower troposphere
readings taken during the event of temperature, humidity, wind, and dewpoint
from balloon-borne sensors called radiosondes. Together, the two data
sources created an accurate picture of the total atmosphere where the
weather occurs. Current forecast models just use the radiosonde data of
precipitation and temperature.
"The 36-hour forecasts using the radiosonde data were more accurate than
those just using the computer forecast model," Jang said. "The addition of
ozone data into the forecast model moved the storm prediction closer to the
East coast, which is what really happened." When the ozone data was added
into the mix, it reduced errors on predicted storm tracks, especially in the
12- to 24-hours period. The findings were verified with multi-sensor hourly
precipitation totals from NOAA/NCEP.
   By better knowing when and where the heaviest snow will fall during a storm,
public works departments can direct their snow moving equipment and can
estimate where problem areas may occur. Other potential uses of this
forecast model include 36-hour advanced predictions of different forms of
air movement.

Previous research links atmospheric movements, such as wind, heat and
moisture to ozone measurements. These movements occur horizontally across
the Earth's surface, as well as vertically from the surface up, and
sometimes stretch over several hundred miles or more.
One of the most noticeable areas of motion is in the vicinity of the jet
stream, and the movement of ozone helps identify its location. The jet
stream is a river of fast moving air in the upper atmosphere that steers
storms around the world. Knowing the exact location of the jet stream would
give forecasters a better idea of where storms may move. In the northern
hemisphere, it moves from west to east and divides colder air from warmer
air.

More case studies are being conducted to fully assess the usefulness of
assimilating TOMS ozone data for more accurate weather prediction.

NASA's Earth Science Enterprise office partially funded this research. The
Enterprise is dedicated to understanding the Earth as an integrated system
and applying Earth System Science to improve predication of climate,
weather, and natural hazards using the unique vantage point of space.

For more information and images on this research, visit:
http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2003/0808forecast.html

For more information about NASA on the Internet, visit:
www.nasa.gov

For more information about NOAA on the Internet, visit:
www.noaa.gov

For more information about NCAR on the Internet, visit:
www.ncar.edu

For more information about NASA's Earth Science Enterprise on the Internet,
visit:
www.earth.nasa.gov

For more information about the TOMS satellite on the Internet, visit:
http://toms.gsfc.nasa.gov

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